Have Obama's Troubles Weakened Him For Fall's Fiscal Fights?
President Obama has had a tough year. He failed to pass gun legislation. Plans for an immigration overhaul have stalled in the House. He barely escaped what would have been a humiliating rejection by Congress on his plan to strike Syria.
Just this week, his own Democrats forced Larry Summers, the president's first choice to head the Federal Reserve, to withdraw.
Former Clinton White House aide Bill Galston says all these issues have weakened the unity of the president's coalition.
"It's not a breach, but there has been some real tension there," he says, "and that's something that neither the president nor congressional Democrats can afford as the budget battle intensifies."
Obama is now facing showdowns with the Republicans over a potential government shutdown and a default on the nation's debt. On Friday, the House voted to fund government operations through mid-December, while also defunding the president's signature health care law — a position that's bound to fail in the Senate.
As these fiscal battles proceed, Republicans have been emboldened by the president's recent troubles, says former GOP leadership aide Ron Bonjean.
"The joke among Republicans is that maybe Vladimir Putin has a plan for President Obama to follow in order to get out of the debt ceiling fight," Bonjean says. "They feel that they may be able to outnegotiate the president or pressure him enough into a deal because his hand has been weakened on Syria."
But Democrats say if Republicans proceed under that assumption, they'll do so at their peril. If Putin did, in fact, rescue the president on Syria with a last-minute diplomatic gambit, now Democrats say the president is being helped by his chief domestic adversary, House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio.
Boehner has been unable to dissuade his Tea Party caucus from threatening to shut down the government or default on the debt unless the president's health law is defunded or delayed. The Republican chaos has helped Democrats unite behind the president, says Jim Manley, a former top aide to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev.
"[Obama] had some missteps within the caucus," Manley says, but "now that he has those situations behind him ... he can turn his attention to the debt limit and the spending issues."
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