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It's pretty much a truism in American political history: If the president is not running again and the vice president wants his party's nomination, it's his for the asking.

That was the case in 1960, with President Eisenhower term-limited and Vice President Richard Nixon's path to the GOP nomination unimpeded.

It was also true in 1968, when President Johnson decided not to run again and his vice president, Hubert Humphrey, won the Democratic nomination despite not having entered a single primary. The quests of Robert Kennedy and Eugene McCarthy ended in assassination in Los Angeles and violence in Chicago, but considering the way things were back in '68, Humphrey may have had the nomination locked up from the beginning.

And while the situations were not exactly the same, George H.W. Bush in 1988, Al Gore in 2000 and Walter Mondale, a former vice president, in 1984 had built-in advantages within the party that helped them get their respective party's nominations.

Just as the conventional wisdom says Biden wants to run in 2016, the same C.W. says Clinton is running as well. While handicapping a presidential race three years in advance is foolhardy, and while nobody wins the nomination because of conventional wisdom, by nearly every measure it seems like the Democratic nomination is hers for the taking. Yes, we did say the same thing two cycles ago, when she was the odds-on favorite for 2008 only to be overtaken by Obama in a classic battle that went down to the wire. But now, the argument goes, it's "her turn." She made the gallant attempt in '08 and served loyally as Obama's secretary of state for the next four years, and now it's time for her to be rewarded for her efforts. Her approval numbers are sky high, far better than they were in 2007-08, and are consistently higher than Biden's. As Obama broke a glass ceiling with his 2008 election, so would Clinton in 2016.

I just paused and checked the calendar — yes, it's only May of 2013 — and reminded myself that there is a silliness to all of this. Biden may not run. Clinton may not run. A lot may happen before we get to 2016 (ya think?). Heck, they may even cancel the election.

My only point is that yes, it is a rarity for a sitting vice president to be denied the nomination if he wants it. As incumbent V.P.s, Nixon, Humphrey, Bush Sr. and Gore all led their party into November. Now we are approaching the likelihood that another sitting vice president hopes to do the same. But this time the odds don't look good.

Sanford Surge in Carolina? Public Policy Polling, the Democratic-leaning firm that showed Elizabeth Colbert Busch up nine points over Mark Sanford two weeks ago, now shows the special election in South Carolina's First Congressional District "too close to call." But PPP's findings clearly indicate Sanford with the momentum: the former Republican governor leads 47-46 percent.

"Sanford has gotten back into the race by nationalizing it and painting Colbert Busch as a liberal. A plurality of voters in the district- 47%- say they think Colbert Busch is a liberal compared to 43% who characterize her as ideologically 'about right.' Colbert Busch's favorability rating has dropped a net 19 points compared to 2 weeks ago, from +25 then at 56/31 to +6 now at 50/44. ...

If SC-1 voters went to the polls on Tuesday and voted for the candidate they personally liked better, Colbert Busch would be the definite winner. That's why Sanford's campaign has tried to shift the focus toward national Democrats who are unpopular in the district, and that's been a key in helping him to make this race competitive again. ...

The other key development in this race over the last two weeks is that Republicans are returning to the electorate. On our last poll, conducted right after the trespassing charges against Sanford became public, we found that the likely electorate had voted for Mitt Romney by only 5 points in a district that he actually won by 18. That suggested many Republican voters were depressed and planning to stay home. On our final poll we find an electorate that's Romney +13- that's still more Democratic than the turnout from last fall, but it's a lot better for Sanford than it was a couple weeks ago."