For Corn, Fickle Weather Makes For Uncertain Yields
"We need some period of dry weather to help dry up the soil so producers can get out in the fields," says climatologist Pat Guinan, who has been forecasting the weather in Missouri for a quarter century. "Perhaps there may be some drier conditions, which will help. But right now, things are a little too wet across a good part of the state. And not only Missouri. Much of the Corn Belt is very wet. Especially from Iowa, over into Minnesota, parts of Wisconsin, Illinois and on into Indiana, we have some very wet conditions."
But even up until January, this moisture is what farmers had been hoping for. Last year's drought led to a 13 percent drop in corn production, which in turn led to tight corn stocks and increased competition for corn between ethanol plants and livestock producers. The shortfall is also hurting corn exports, which are now at a 40-year low.
"A good production year would mean there would be less competition and would improve margins," says Sterling Liddell, an agricultural economist with Rabo AgriFinance. "Especially in the cattle industry, which has suffered the most."
Last year's drought moved many farmers, including Gary Riedel, to increase the amount of crop insurance they carry. Peggy Smart, 77, also upped her coverage. Along with her family, she plants corn, soybeans and wheat on 6,000 acres of Missouri River bottomland in Tebbetts, Mo.
But nothing is planted yet. "We just don't have enough sunshine," she says.
Both Smart and Riedel are hoping to minimize the risks of bad weather by trying out drought- and flood-tolerant hybrid seeds this year. But first, they have to wait for the soil to dry out.
"It's just crazy that one year is one way and one is another," she says. "We don't have to go to Las Vegas to gamble, because farming is the biggest gamble there is."
Abbie Fentress Swanson reports from Missouri for Harvest Public Media, an agriculture-reporting project involving nine NPR member stations in the Midwest. For more stories about farm and food, check out Harvest Public Media.